Shanghai Aluminum's recent sideways consolidation is difficult to change

Shanghai Aluminum rebounded slightly yesterday. Among them, the main contract AL508 opened higher at 16640 with a slight intraday volatility and fell to 16630. With the influx of buying prices, aluminum prices steadily rebounded. The last market closed at 16670, the highest point of the day, and rose by 40 yuan from the previous trading day. 658 contracts were traded throughout the day, a decrease of 2010 hands from the previous trading day; the number of positions held was 1,2014 lots, an increase of 268 lots over the previous trading day. In the process of Shanghai Aluminum's rise yesterday, the transaction volume was significantly reduced, and the driving force for further aluminum price rise was still insufficient. Judging from the performance of various contracts today, the recent months have been affected by the slight increase in spot prices and the trend has been strong. Long-term month trend is weak, especially the AL510 contract, although lower than the spot market 300 yuan / ton, but still closed by the Yinxian, indicating that traders are still not optimistic about the trend of the forward month. From the technical indicators, the 5th, 10th, and 30th averages are now twining together. The relative strength index (RSI) is still around 50, and the long and short-term strength is relatively balanced. It is expected that the trend of the recent sideways consolidation will remain difficult to change. Pan Jiazhu, deputy chairman and secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, recently pointed out that China will become the world's largest consumer of primary aluminum in 2005. Before 2020, it is a period for China to build a well-off society in an all-round way. Its GDP growth will be maintained at more than 7%, which is the basis for aluminum consumption in China. At the same time, the process of urbanization and industrialization in China’s society will accelerate its consumption of aluminum. China is becoming the center of the world's manufacturing industry, and the export of aluminum components and manufacturing industrial products is increasing. Stimulated by this news, today's domestic spot market picked up slightly. Among them, the spot market of Huatong rose by 70 yuan compared with the previous trading day and is currently stable at 16,895 yuan/ton; the spot market of the Yangtze River rose by 20 yuan compared with the previous trading day and remained stable at 16,870 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot market was 16,800 yuan/ t, up 10 yuan over the previous trading day. The rebound in the spot market further contributed to the slight increase in Shanghai aluminum prices today. Based on the above analysis, at present, the characteristics of Shanghai aluminum sideways are obvious, and it is recommended that traders take a wait-and-see approach for the time being.